Low-Earth-orbit satellites
Round and round they go
The launch of thousands of new satellites will boost the space economy
近地軌道衛星
轉圈圈
轉呀轉呀轉呀轉
將有數千顆新衛星升空,推動太空經濟發展
數千顆新衛星即將升空,太空經濟將迅猛發展
Space is becoming more crowded. On December 3rda Falcon 9 rocket made by SpaceX thundered into the sky. On board were 64 small satellites, more than any American company had launched before in one go. They have an array of uses, from space-based radar to the monitoring of radio-frequency emissions. One, designed by Trevor Paglen, an artist, will soon unfurl a 30-metre reflective structure that will shine down on Earth like an artificial star, visible to the naked eye.
太空正變得越來越擁擠。12月3日,SpaceX制造的壹枚獵鷹九號火箭轟隆升空。它上面裝載了64顆小型衛星,超過之前任何壹家美國公司單次發射衛星的數量。從天基雷達到無線電發射監測,這些衛星的用途多種多樣。其中壹顆由藝術家Trevor Paglen設計,內嵌的30米場反射器不久將會打開,變成壹顆肉眼可見的人造星星,在地球的上空閃光。
太空越來越擁擠了。12月3日,SpaceX發射了壹枚獵鷹9號火箭,這壹次***有64顆小型衛星隨之升空,創下了美國公司單次發射衛星數量的新紀錄。這些衛星用途多樣,從天基雷達到無線電監測等十分廣泛。其中還包括壹顆由藝術家特雷弗·裴格倫(Trevor Paglen)設計的藝術衛星,它將在太空中釋放約30米長的反射器,變身為肉眼即可觀賞到的人造衛星。
These objects are part of the latest breed of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites, which are designed to whizz around the planet only a few hundred kilometers above its surface. This month’s launch is just a taste of what is planned. SpaceX and OneWeb, a communications firm, plan to launch satellites in their thousands, not hundreds (see briefing). The pair are set to double the total number of satellites in orbit by 2027.
這些都屬於最新型的近地軌道衛星,在距地表僅幾百公裏的軌道上繞行。本月發射的只是計劃中的以下部分。SpaceX和衛星通信公司OneWeb計劃發射幾千而不是幾百顆衛星。兩家公司的目標是讓軌道衛星的綜述到2027年增加壹倍。
此次發射的衛星都屬於最新型近地軌道衛星(LEO),運行軌道距離地面不過幾百公裏。此次發射活動也只是更宏大計劃的牛刀小試。SpaceX和通信公司OneWeb打算發射數以千計的衛星,幾百個尚不足為道,到2027年,它們要把在軌衛星的數量增加壹倍。
That promises to change things dramatically on Earth. LEO satellites can bring internet connectivity to places where it is still unavailable or unaffordable. This will also be an enduring source of new demand for the space economy. Morgan Stanley, a bank, projects that the space industry will grow from $350bn in 2016 to more than $1.1trn by 2040. New internet satellites will account for a half this increase.
這會給地球帶來巨大改變。近地軌道衛星可以為目前還未接入互聯網或者聯網成本過高的地區提供網絡連接。而這也將是太空經濟新需求的持久源泉。摩根士丹利預測,航天業的規模將從2016年的3500億美元增長至2040年的超過1.1萬億美元。其中壹半的增長將源自新興互聯網衛星。
這將給人類社會帶來巨大改變。有了近地軌道衛星,目前沒有網絡或者網絡太貴的地區就能聯網了。太空經濟也將因此獲得源源不斷的新需求。摩根士丹利預測,到2040年,太空行業規模將從2016年的3,500億美元增長到超過1.1萬億美元,其中壹半將來自互聯網衛星。
For that to happen, however, three worries must be overcome. Debris is the most familiar concern. As long ago as 1978, Donald Kessler, a scientist at NASA, proposed a scenario in which, when enough satellites were packed into low-Earth orbits, any collision could cause a chain reaction which would eventually destroy all space craft in its orbital plane. The syndrome which bears Mr. Kessler’s name weighs heavily on the minds of executives at the new satellite firms. Debris could conceivably render entire tracts of space unusable for decades. (Collisions have already happened. In 2009 an American satellite and a Russian one crashed into each other above Siberia, sending over a tonne of metal fragments swirling around the planet at thousands of kilometers per hour.)
然而,要實現這壹點必須解決三大憂患。其中最為人熟知的壹個是空間碎片。早在1978年,美國國家航空航天局的科學家DO哪來的Kessler就提出,當足夠多的衛星進入近地軌道時,任何碰撞都可能引起連鎖反應,最終破壞所在軌道平面內的所有航天器。這壹被命名為“凱斯勒綜合癥”的理論是壓在新型衛星公司高管心頭的壹塊大石。碎片可能導致整個太空軌道在幾十年內都無法使用。(碰撞事件已有發生。2009年壹顆美國衛星和壹顆俄羅斯衛星在西伯利亞上空相撞,產生的壹噸多金屬碎片以每小時數千公裏的速度在地球上空旋轉。)
然而,要實現這壹願景,尚需解決三大問題。太空垃圾首當其沖。1978年,美國國家航空航天局的科學家唐納德·凱斯勒(Donald Kessler)就曾提出,當近地軌道衛星達到壹定的密集程度,壹旦發生碰撞,連鎖反應將摧毀該軌道平面上的所有航天器。這種情景被命名為“凱斯勒綜合癥”,給新興衛星公司高管的心頭投下了壹片陰影。壹旦太空軌道上擠滿了碎片,或許數十年都不能再發射航天器了。(太空碰撞已經不再是設想。2009年,壹顆美國衛星和壹顆俄羅斯衛星在西伯利亞上空相撞,留下了壹噸多金屬碎片以每小時數千公裏的速度在地球上空飛速旋轉。)
Solutions exist. One is to grab malfunctioning satellites and pull them down into Earth’s atmosphere. Another is to monitor space more intensively for debris; a US Air Force programme called Space Fence is due to start in 2019. But technology is only part of the answer. Rules are needed to govern the safe disposal of old satellites from low-Earth orbit. The United States’ Federal Communications Commission is revising its regulations with this in mind. Other countries should follow suit.
解決辦法是有的。壹個方案是“捉住”故障衛星,將其下拉至地球大氣層中。另壹個方案是更嚴密地檢測太空中的碎片,美國空軍壹項名為“太空籬笆”(Space Fence)的相關計劃將於2019年啟動。但技術只是解決方案的壹部分,還需要制定規則來管理近地軌道就衛星的安全處置問題。為此美國聯邦通信委員會(FCC)正在修訂相關規定。其他國家也應效仿。
解決辦法還是有的。首先,可以將發生故障的衛星抓住並拖入地球大氣層中。其次,更嚴密地監控太空碎片;美國空軍就將在2019年啟動Space Fence(太空籬笆)計劃。但是科技只是壹個方面。要安全清除近地軌道上的舊衛星,還需要相關政策加持。美國聯邦通信委員會(FCC)正在沿著這個思路修訂相關規定。其他國家也應如此。
Cyber-security is a second, long-standing worry. Hackers could take control of a satellite and seal intellectual property, redirect data flows or cause a collision. The satellite industry has been slow to respond to such concerns. But as more of the world’s population comes to rely on the infrastructure of space for access to the internet, the need for action intensifies.
第二個擔憂存在已久——網絡安全。黑客可能劫持衛星,竊取知識產權,重新定向數據流,或者讓衛星相撞。衛星行業對這類問題反應遲緩。但隨著世界上越來越多人口依賴太空基礎設施接入互聯網,就此類風險采取行動變得愈加迫切。
其次,網絡安全隱患存在已久。黑客可能劫持衛星,竊取知識產權,重新定向數據流,甚至讓衛星相撞。對於這些問題,衛星行業的反應壹直很緩慢。但是,越來越多的人口需要依賴太空基礎設施才能連接互聯網,因此,采取行動已變得十分緊迫。
The third issue follows from the first two. If a simple mistake or a cyber-attack can cause a chain reaction which wipes out hundreds of billions of dollars of investment, who is liable? Underwriters are studying the plans of firms that wish to operate large numbers of satellites. But there is a long way to go before the risks are well understood, let alone priced.
第三個問題因前兩者而生。如果壹個簡單錯誤或壹次網絡攻擊就可能導致連鎖反應,令數千億美元的投資化為烏有,那麽誰該為此負責?保險公司正在研究那些想要運營大量衛星的企業提出的計劃。但要充分了解其中的風險尚需時日,更別說要為這些風險定價了。
問題之三與前兩者聯系密切。如果壹個小小的錯誤或者壹次網絡攻擊就能引發連鎖反應,足以讓數百億美元投資化為烏有,那麽這筆賬該找誰來算呢?保險公司正在幫助有意運營大量衛星的公司研究保險計劃,但是充分了解其中風險尚需時日,要給風險定價豈不是難上加難。
As space becomes more commercialized, mind-bending prospects open up: packages shuttled across the planet in minutes by rocket rather than by plane, mining equipment sent to asteroids, a stream of paying passengers launched to orbit and beyond. All that and more may come, one day. But such activities would raise the same questions as LEO satellites do. They must be answered before the space economy can truly blossom.
隨著太空空間變得更商業化,讓人腦洞大開的前景漸現:通過火箭而不是飛機在幾分鐘之內橫跨地球遞送包裹;把采礦設備發射到小行星上;把付費乘客“發射”到地球軌道或更遠的地方。某壹天,這些乃至更多的想法也許都會壹壹實現。但這些活動會和近地軌道衛星引發同樣的問題。必須首先回答這些問題,太空經濟才能真正開花結果。
太空的商業化程度越來越高,千奇百怪的想法也紛紛湧現:用火箭代替飛機送快遞,幾分鐘就能穿越地球;把采礦設備發送到小行星上去;花錢買票就能去地球軌道甚至更遠的地方。未來某天,或許再光怪陸離的想法也能成真。但是那時,人們還是要面對近地軌道衛星今天面對的問題。只有盡快找到解決辦法,太空經濟才能真正百花齊放。