“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.
與以往的經濟衰退相比，這次的復蘇將會緩慢許多；但政府可以略獻綿力。
“美國，您要往哪走？”這是五十年前頹廢派的代表，傑克凱魯亞克的疑問；也是如今困擾全世界經濟的壹個懸念。這個提問也反映美國選民最大的憂慮，國會中期選舉將在11月2日舉行，而失業率卻頑固高居近10%並且紋絲不動。他們應該做好這場艱辛漫長之旅的準備。
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
1930年代以來最痛苦的經濟衰退已在壹年前結束。本來就起步乏力的復蘇，在年初突然放緩。第二季度的GDP年增長率只有微弱的1.6%，過後就在這範圍徘徊不前。政府的購房稅務優惠政策期滿後，房地產市場隨之暴跌；造成私營領域的就業機會銳減，失業率似乎將可能不降反升。本夏季與日俱增的憂慮是，如果復蘇持續放緩，美國經濟將會再度陷入衰退。
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
可喜的是，這些擔憂如今看來似乎誇大了。源自中國的進口額短暫的提升是導致第二季度GDP疲軟的原因；根據最新的統計，從八月份不錯的銷售額至領取失業補貼人數的減少顯示，盡管經濟還是疲憊不堪，但是已停止下滑。歷史經驗表明，雖然經濟復蘇初期的步伐在壹兩個季度中會搖擺不定，但很少會再陷入衰退。目前，美國經濟的增長最可能是以大約2.5%水平步履蹣跚地前進；盡管是高於失速，但還是太緩慢，不足於改善失業率。
英語牛人團